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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

5-1-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 5:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

2-4-2  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Carl Lindbom
GOALTENDER

Carl Lindbom

#30 | G
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Carl Lindbom None-None 1.98 0.929 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 0.99 0.947 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.98 GAA Ldr 0.99
0.929 Save % Ldr 0.947
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
VEGAS
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 TB @ VGK 6 - 3
Oct 26, 2025 VGK @ TB 1 - 2
Mar 23, 2025 TB @ VGK 2 - 4
Oct 17, 2024 VGK @ TB 3 - 4
Mar 19, 2024 TB @ VGK 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.0% more
Tampa Bay: 28.8 vs Vegas: 25.3
Takeaways (L5) +12.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.1 vs Vegas: 3.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +31.4% more
Vegas: 19.4 vs Tampa Bay: 13.3
Power Play % (L5) +4.7%
Vegas: 22.0% vs Tampa Bay: 17.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 3.0 1
TB Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.3 / 19.4 14.0 / 24.0
Faceoff % 50.0 / 54.4 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 19.2 / 20.3 19.0 / 27.0
Power Play % 1738.0 / 2204.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.8 / 25.3 28.0 / 19.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
60%MONEY40%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
VGK
TB
VGK
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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