Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Nuggets PHX @ DEN

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

1-1  |  Road

111
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

0-1  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
SUNS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Denver)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

5.5%

Nuggets Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

PHX By 1-7 points

4.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

0.8%

DEN By 1-7 points

13.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
107
PHOENIX
123
DENVER
Simulated Score
110
PHOENIX
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-13) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u234.0 Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +14.1%
Denver: 83.7% vs Phoenix: 69.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Denver: 49.1% vs Phoenix: 44.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Denver: 35.0% vs Phoenix: 33.0%
Blocks (L5) +27.3% more
Phoenix: 5.4 vs Denver: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 107.0 111
DEN Score 123.0 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 33.0 40.0 / 29.4
Assists 26.7 / 25.0 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.4 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 44.2 53.7 / 47.4
Free Throw % 8366.0 / 6951.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 41.6 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 7.9 / 10.7 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 16.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
PHX
DEN
PHX
ML
54% 57-48
57% 60-45
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 59-43-3
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 0 minutes ago
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 18 hours, 15 minutes ago
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
yahoo 18 hours, 35 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 18 hours, 42 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 23 hours, 41 minutes ago