OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
2-0 | Road
117
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
1-1 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
HAWKS
100%
THUNDER
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
10.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
21.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
2.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
134
OKLAHOMA CITY
Atlanta
116
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.5
Loss
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
ATL @ OKC
129 - 140
Oct 25, 2025
OKC @ ATL
117 - 100
Feb 28, 2025
OKC @ ATL
135 - 119
Oct 27, 2024
ATL @ OKC
104 - 128
Oct 17, 2024
ATL @ OKC
99 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.6% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5
vs
Atlanta: 8.3
Rebounding (L5)
+8.8% more
Oklahoma City: 47.2
vs
Atlanta: 43.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Oklahoma City: 82.2%
vs
Atlanta: 78.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Oklahoma City: 30.3%
vs
Atlanta: 28.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
134.0
117
ATL Score
116.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.3 / 30.3
28.6 / 26.4
Assists
26.2 / 23.0
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
6.1 / 4.2
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 44.5
42.2 / 44.7
Free Throw %
7860.0 / 8222.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 47.2
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
8.3 / 10.5
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 14.9
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
OKC
ATL
OKC
ML
50%
52-52
70%
80-34
55%
48-40
48%
46-49
ATS
53%
55-48-1
73%
83-30-1
55%
48-40
48%
46-49
TTL
53%
55-48-1
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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