INDIANA
PACERSIND
0-1 | Road
103
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
1-1 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
PACERS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.4%
IND By 8-14 points
21.6%
MEM By 1-7 points
20.1%
MEM By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
127
INDIANA
Memphis
123
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.5
Loss
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
MEM @ IND
125 - 106
Oct 25, 2025
IND @ MEM
103 - 128
Feb 20, 2025
MEM @ IND
113 - 127
Dec 1, 2024
IND @ MEM
121 - 136
Oct 14, 2024
MEM @ IND
120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.9% more
Indiana: 9.1
vs
Memphis: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+16.0% more
Indiana: 48.8
vs
Memphis: 41.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Indiana: 35.7%
vs
Memphis: 31.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Indiana: 45.3%
vs
Memphis: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
127.0
103
MEM Score
123.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 35.7
29.7 / 30.2
Assists
25.4 / 24.3
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.6
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 45.3
51.2 / 43.8
Free Throw %
8217.0 / 7612.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 48.8
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.1
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 19.4
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MEM
Advantage
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
IND
MEM
IND
ML
57%
59-44
48%
47-50
50%
41-41
54%
45-38
ATS
63%
65-38
59%
57-40
50%
41-41
54%
45-38
TTL
70%
71-31-1
54%
52-45
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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