OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
3-4-1 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
6-2-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 1.01 | 0.923 | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 7.01 | 0.794 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.01 Ldr
GAA
7.01
0.923 Ldr
Save %
0.794
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
SENATORS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
OTT By 1 goal
2.8%
OTT By 2-3 goals
1.2%
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
1
OTTAWA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
OTT @ WSH
1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026
WSH @ OTT
3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
OTT @ WSH
7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025
OTT @ WSH
4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025
WSH @ OTT
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+42.1% more
Washington: 4.5
vs
Ottawa: 3.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.4% more
Washington: 32.2
vs
Ottawa: 29.2
Power Play % (L5)
+9.2%
Washington: 32.4%
vs
Ottawa: 23.2%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.7% more
Ottawa: 12.9
vs
Washington: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
1.0
7
WSH Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.4 / 12.9
11.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
50.3 / 53.3
39.0 / 61.0
Hits
23.1 / 21.5
28.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
32.4 / 23.2
0.0 / 75.0
Shots on Goal
32.2 / 29.2
13.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 3.2
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
OTT
WSH
OTT
ML
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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