ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
4-2-1 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-4-2 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 4.00 | 0.879 | -- |
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00
GAA
--
0.879
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
DUCKS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ANA By 1 goal
19.7%
ANA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
3
ANAHEIM
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Anaheim
4
ANAHEIM
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Ducks (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 31, 2025
TB @ ANA
4 - 3
Oct 25, 2025
ANA @ TB
3 - 4
Jan 16, 2025
ANA @ TB
3 - 4
Jan 5, 2025
TB @ ANA
1 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
TB @ ANA
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+20.5% more
Anaheim: 23.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.7% more
Anaheim: 31.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 26.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.1% more
Anaheim: 14.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
3.0
3
TB Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.5 / 14.5
15.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 47.7
52.1 / 47.9
Hits
18.4 / 23.1
21.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
17.7 / 18.5
16.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 31.7
33.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 3.5
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ANA
TB
ANA
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
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