ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-1 | Road
111
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
1-0 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
MAGIC
0%
HAWKS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ATL By 1-7 points
2.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
0.4%
ORL By 1-7 points
9.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
105
ATLANTA
Orlando
124
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (-6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
ATL @ ORL
130 - 101
Mar 16, 2026
ORL @ ATL
112 - 124
Nov 4, 2025
ORL @ ATL
112 - 127
Oct 24, 2025
ATL @ ORL
111 - 107
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ ORL
95 - 120
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Orlando: 37.2%
vs
Atlanta: 28.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Orlando: 47.1%
vs
Atlanta: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
105.0
111
ORL Score
124.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 28.7
29.0 / 27.6
Assists
25.0 / 26.3
21.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.7 / 6.7
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 43.7
47.4 / 48.2
Free Throw %
81.1 / 80.4
64.9 / 75.0
Rebounding
47.3 / 44.6
45.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 16.7
22.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
ATL
ORL
ATL
ML
61%
65-42
50%
52-52
56%
51-40
55%
48-40
ATS
64%
68-38-1
53%
55-48-1
56%
51-40
55%
48-40
TTL
57%
61-46
53%
55-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
88-0
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