DETROIT
PISTONSDET
0-1 | Road
115
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-1 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
PISTONS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DET By 1-7 points
1.7%
DET By 8-14 points
0.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
8.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
114
DETROIT
Houston
134
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o226.5
Loss
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim
u226.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
HOU @ DET
111 - 104
Oct 24, 2025
DET @ HOU
115 - 111
Jan 20, 2025
DET @ HOU
107 - 96
Nov 10, 2024
HOU @ DET
101 - 99
Jan 12, 2024
HOU @ DET
112 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.6% more
Houston: 18.1
vs
Detroit: 15.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.6%
Houston: 84.7%
vs
Detroit: 72.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Houston: 48.6
vs
Detroit: 44.0
Blocks (L5)
+31.9% more
Detroit: 8.4
vs
Houston: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
114.0
115
HOU Score
134.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 33.2
45.5 / 41.0
Assists
25.2 / 28.0
15.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.7 / 8.4
2.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 47.5
38.6 / 46.7
Free Throw %
84.7 / 72.1
77.1 / 65.2
Rebounding
48.6 / 44.0
45.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.5 / 10.0
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.1 / 15.2
14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
61%
69-44
55%
64-53
59%
51-35
49%
47-49
ATS
62%
70-43
53%
60-54-3
59%
51-35
49%
47-49
TTL
51%
58-55
60%
70-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
96-0
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