Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Pelicans SA @ NO

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

1-0  |  Road

120
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-1  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
SPURS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (San Antonio)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

99.4%

Pelicans Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

SA By 1-7 points

3.3%

SA By 8-14 points

10.7%

NO By 1-7 points

0.5%

NO By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
135
SAN ANTONIO
110
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
SAN ANTONIO
116
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 25, 2026 NO @ SA 104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025 SA @ NO 135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025 NO @ SA 119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025 SA @ NO 120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025 NO @ SA 115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
San Antonio: 10.3 vs New Orleans: 8.4
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
San Antonio: 26.4 vs New Orleans: 22.7
Blocks (L5) +11.6% more
San Antonio: 3.8 vs New Orleans: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
San Antonio: 37.2% vs New Orleans: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 135.0 120
NO Score 110.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 37.2 31.3 / 30.2
Assists 22.7 / 26.4 24.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.8 3.0 / 13.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 50.9 43.3 / 45.9
Free Throw % 79.1 / 71.6 75.9 / 65.4
Rebounding 45.4 / 47.3 45.0 / 59.0
Steals 8.4 / 10.3 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 15.9 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SA
NO
SA
ML
62% 98-61
60% 111-73
58% 48-35
58% 61-44
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 107-76-1
58% 48-35
58% 61-44
TTL
75% 119-40
74% 134-47-3
100% 83-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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