MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-1 | Road
146
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
1-0 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
HEAT
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MIA By 1-7 points
0.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
0.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
0.5%
MEM By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Memphis
138
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Miami
107
MIAMI
Memphis
110
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
MEM @ MIA
120 - 136
Oct 24, 2025
MIA @ MEM
146 - 114
Apr 3, 2025
MEM @ MIA
110 - 108
Mar 15, 2025
MIA @ MEM
91 - 125
Oct 18, 2024
MIA @ MEM
114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.2% more
Memphis: 6.9
vs
Miami: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Memphis: 33.0%
vs
Miami: 29.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Memphis: 78.6%
vs
Miami: 76.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Memphis: 44.9%
vs
Miami: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
105.0
146
MEM Score
138.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 29.2
28.9 / 47.5
Assists
23.6 / 23.7
29.0 / 34.0
Blocks
6.9 / 4.5
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 43.4
40.0 / 53.9
Free Throw %
78.6 / 76.6
89.3 / 77.3
Rebounding
41.0 / 50.1
41.0 / 57.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.0
8.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 18.8
20.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIA
MEM
MIA
ML
57%
59-44
48%
46-50
50%
41-41
59%
48-34
ATS
63%
65-38
51%
49-47
50%
41-41
59%
48-34
TTL
70%
71-31-1
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
Contextual Game News
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
Miami Heat Attempt 40 3-Pointers in a Single Half During Intrasq…
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
Ja Morant Impresses in Early Blazers Scrimmage, Building Chemist…