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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

0-1  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

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107
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
WIZARDS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Dallas)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

0.0%

Mavericks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

WSH By 1-7 points

0.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

0.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

0.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
89
WASHINGTON
134
DALLAS
Simulated Score
119
WASHINGTON
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Wizards (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 DAL @ WSH 111 - 105
Oct 24, 2025 WSH @ DAL 117 - 107
Jan 27, 2025 WSH @ DAL 108 - 130
Dec 5, 2024 DAL @ WSH 137 - 101
Feb 12, 2024 WSH @ DAL 104 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.2% more
Dallas: 8.3 vs Washington: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +18.6% more
Dallas: 5.5 vs Washington: 4.7
Assists (L5) +10.5% more
Dallas: 26.2 vs Washington: 23.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Dallas: 78.6% vs Washington: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 89.0 117
DAL Score 134.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 34.2 29.4 / 41.7
Assists 26.2 / 23.7 23.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.7 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 44.4 43.2 / 45.6
Free Throw % 78.6 / 69.2 77.8 / 69.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 50.8 48.0 / 48.0
Steals 8.3 / 5.7 11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 15.7 21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
62% 63-39
70% 112-49
54% 44-37
47% 39-44
ATS
67% 68-34
69% 111-49-1
54% 44-37
47% 39-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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