Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Trail Blazers GS @ POR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

2-0  |  Road

119
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

0-1  |  Home

139
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
WARRIORS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Portland)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

0.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

GS By 1-7 points

0.1%

GS By 8-14 points

0.0%

POR By 1-7 points

0.8%

POR By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
GOLDEN STATE
124
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
108
GOLDEN STATE
120
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.3% more
Portland: 4.3 vs Golden State: 3.5
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Golden State: 29.9 vs Portland: 24.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Golden State: 38.2% vs Portland: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Golden State: 48.1% vs Portland: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 93.0 119
POR Score 124.0 139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 38.2 47.1 / 42.1
Assists 24.3 / 29.9 30.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.5 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 48.1 53.8 / 43.8
Free Throw % 76.1 / 79.5 92.0 / 84.6
Rebounding 46.3 / 42.9 38.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.0 / 9.9 13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 16.7 19.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
GS
POR
GS
ML
53% 56-49
55% 95-79
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 101-73
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 58-46-1
77% 134-40
100% 89-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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