Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Pacers OKC @ IND

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-0  |  Road

141
FINAL
Thu, Oct 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-0  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
THUNDER --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Indiana)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

8.1%

Pacers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

OKC By 1-7 points

5.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

1.4%

IND By 1-7 points

16.9%

IND By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
119
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.3% more
Indiana: 22.1 vs Oklahoma City: 15.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
Indiana: 45.7 vs Oklahoma City: 40.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Indiana: 38.4% vs Oklahoma City: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Indiana: 46.1% vs Oklahoma City: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 105.0 141
IND Score 119.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 31.2 30.2 / 28.6
Assists 25.9 / 26.0 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 44.1 43.8 / 45.3
Free Throw % 76.7 / 79.2 75.0 / 88.2
Rebounding 45.7 / 40.8 55.0 / 60.0
Steals 10.7 / 12.7 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 22.1 / 15.4 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
OKC
IND
OKC
ML
48% 47-50
70% 80-34
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
ATS
59% 57-40
73% 83-30-1
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 52-45
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 52 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 59 minutes ago
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
kcci 18 hours, 13 minutes ago
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…
bleacherreport 1 day, 5 hours ago
Brooks Barnhizer Shines in Thunder Preseason Debut, Sparks Hope …
si 1 day, 17 hours ago