CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKSCHI
3-2-2 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-3-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Spencer Knight
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight | None-None | 2.00 | 0.935 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 3.04 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.04
0.935 Ldr
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLACKHAWKS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
BLACKHAWKS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CHI By 1 goal
12.1%
CHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blackhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Blackhawks (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
TB @ CHI
2 - 1
Oct 23, 2025
CHI @ TB
3 - 2
Jan 28, 2025
CHI @ TB
4 - 1
Jan 24, 2025
TB @ CHI
4 - 3
Nov 16, 2023
TB @ CHI
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 15.2
vs
Chicago: 11.6
Power Play % (L5)
+8.9%
Tampa Bay: 26.6%
vs
Chicago: 17.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+40.2% more
Chicago: 5.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.6
Hits (L5)
+15.8% more
Chicago: 22.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
3.0
3
TB Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 11.6
7.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
43.0 / 52.2
60.8 / 39.2
Hits
18.5 / 22.0
18.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
26.6 / 17.7
0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
24.6 / 27.2
31.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 5.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHI
TB
CHI
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
ATS
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1-1
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