PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
5-2-0 | Road
5
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
4-4-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
FLA By 1 goal
19.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
FLA @ PIT
2 - 5
Apr 4, 2026
FLA @ PIT
4 - 9
Oct 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
5 - 3
Mar 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
3 - 4
Jan 3, 2025
PIT @ FLA
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+71.7% more
Florida: 27.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.9
Takeaways (L5)
+24.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.3
vs
Florida: 2.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+18.8% more
Pittsburgh: 18.5
vs
Florida: 15.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.8%
Pittsburgh: 52.8%
vs
Florida: 48.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
5
FLA Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 18.5
9.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
48.0 / 52.8
47.0 / 53.0
Hits
27.3 / 15.9
26.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
18.3 / 23.1
66.7 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
26.1 / 26.2
37.0 / 17.0
Takeaways
2.5 / 3.3
4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
PIT
FLA
PIT
ML
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
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