Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Bengals NYJ @ CIN

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-7  |  Road

39
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

3-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Joseph Ossai
KEY GAME

Joseph Ossai

#46 | Defensive End
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Joseph Ossai None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
JETS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

38.8%

Bengals Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYJ By 1-6 points

17.0%

NYJ By 7-13 points

18.0%

CIN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
NEW YORK
20
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
24
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 NYJ @ CIN 39 - 38
Sep 25, 2022 CIN @ NYJ 27 - 12
Oct 31, 2021 CIN @ NYJ 31 - 34
Dec 1, 2019 NYJ @ CIN 6 - 22
Sep 11, 2016 CIN @ NYJ 23 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.6% more
New York: 1.4 vs Cincinnati: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.9% more
New York: 110.6 vs Cincinnati: 89.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +83.5% more
Cincinnati: 242.9 vs New York: 132.4
Total Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Cincinnati: 332.7 vs New York: 243.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 24.0 39
CIN Score 20.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 15.5 24.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 242.9 / 132.4 217.0 / 248.0
Rushing Yards 89.7 / 110.6 181.0 / 254.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 332.7 / 243.0 398.0 / 502.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.0 6.9 / 7.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYJ
CIN
NYJ
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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