Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Texans SF @ HOU

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

5-2  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

2-4  |  Home

26
Key Game
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Eddy Pineiro None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
49ERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Houston)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

38.8%

Texans Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

SF By 1-6 points

14.7%

SF By 7-13 points

12.1%

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
SAN FRANCISCO
24
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
SAN FRANCISCO
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 SF @ HOU 15 - 26
Jan 2, 2022 HOU @ SF 7 - 23
Dec 10, 2017 SF @ HOU 26 - 16
Oct 6, 2013 HOU @ SF 3 - 34
Oct 25, 2009 SF @ HOU 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.8% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Houston: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Houston: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
San Francisco: 250.3 vs Houston: 209.0
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
San Francisco: 360.2 vs Houston: 315.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 20.0 15
HOU Score 24.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 21.9 23.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 209.0 / 250.3 318.0 / 175.0
Rushing Yards 106.4 / 109.9 157.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.69 / 0.31
Total Yards 315.4 / 360.2 475.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.3 6.3 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SF
HOU
SF
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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