Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Panthers BUF @ CAR

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

4-2  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

4-3  |  Home

9
Key Game
Austin Corbett
KEY GAME

Austin Corbett

#63 | Center
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Austin Corbett None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
BILLS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

85.8%

Panthers Cover

14.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

12.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.5%

CAR By 1-6 points

7.2%

CAR By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
BUFFALO
9
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
BUFFALO
27
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 BUF @ CAR 40 - 9
Dec 19, 2021 CAR @ BUF 14 - 31
Sep 17, 2017 BUF @ CAR 3 - 9
Sep 15, 2013 CAR @ BUF 23 - 24
Oct 25, 2009 BUF @ CAR 20 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Buffalo: 1.5 vs Carolina: 0.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.3% more
Buffalo: 5.8 vs Carolina: 5.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Buffalo: 201.9 vs Carolina: 185.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Carolina: 157.7 vs Buffalo: 143.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.0 40
CAR Score 9.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.3 19.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 185.2 / 201.9 130.0 / 165.0
Rushing Yards 157.7 / 143.8 114.0 / 245.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 342.9 / 345.7 244.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.8 4.1 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
BUF
CAR
BUF
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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