Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Saints TB @ NO

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

5-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 4:05 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-6  |  Home

3
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
John Ridgeway III
KEY GAME

John Ridgeway III

#95 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
John Ridgeway III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
SAINTS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

85.8%

Saints Cover

14.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

12.2%

TB By 7-13 points

18.5%

NO By 1-6 points

7.2%

NO By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
TAMPA BAY
16
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
TAMPA BAY
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NO @ TB 24 - 20
Oct 26, 2025 TB @ NO 23 - 3
Jan 5, 2025 NO @ TB 19 - 27
Oct 13, 2024 TB @ NO 51 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 NO @ TB 23 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.4% more
Tampa Bay: 248.6 vs New Orleans: 205.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 331.3 vs New Orleans: 286.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.2% more
Tampa Bay: 5.5 vs New Orleans: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +89.0% more
New Orleans: 1.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 31.0 23
NO Score 16.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 18.9 17.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 205.4 / 248.6 227.0 / 124.0
Rushing Yards 81.0 / 82.7 48.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 286.4 / 331.3 275.0 / 212.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.9 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.5 3.9 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
TB
NO
TB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Bengals Defender Exposes Malik Willis's Pre-Throw Tic Before Dol…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 1 hour, 27 minutes ago