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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-3-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

5-2  |  Home

44
Key Game
P.J. Locke
KEY GAME

P.J. Locke

#1 | Safety
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
P.J. Locke None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
COWBOYS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Denver)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

47.2%

Broncos Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

DAL By 7-13 points

14.6%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DALLAS
21
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
DALLAS
27
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 DAL @ DEN 24 - 44
Nov 7, 2021 DEN @ DAL 30 - 16
Sep 17, 2017 DAL @ DEN 17 - 42
Oct 6, 2013 DEN @ DAL 51 - 48
Oct 4, 2009 DAL @ DEN 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.0% more
Denver: 0.5 vs Dallas: 0.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.9% more
Dallas: 6.2 vs Denver: 5.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Dallas: 261.1 vs Denver: 227.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Dallas: 0.4 vs Denver: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 20.0 24
DEN Score 21.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 20.9 25.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 227.9 / 261.1 247.0 / 231.0
Rushing Yards 126.0 / 120.6 179.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 353.9 / 381.6 426.0 / 339.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 6.2 7.5 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DAL
DEN
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
67% 2-1-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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