Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Steelers GB @ PIT

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

4-1-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 8:20 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

4-2  |  Home

25
Key Game
Jonnu Smith
KEY GAME

Jonnu Smith

#18 | Tight End
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Jonnu Smith None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
100%
📊
STEELERS
0%
PACKERS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

47.2%

Steelers Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

GB By 1-6 points

16.1%

GB By 7-13 points

14.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25
GREEN BAY
26
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
24
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 GB @ PIT 35 - 25
Nov 12, 2023 GB @ PIT 19 - 23
Oct 3, 2021 PIT @ GB 17 - 27
Nov 26, 2017 GB @ PIT 28 - 31
Dec 22, 2013 PIT @ GB 38 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0 vs Green Bay: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
Green Bay: 21.5 vs Pittsburgh: 18.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Green Bay: 121.8 vs Pittsburgh: 111.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 25.0 35
PIT Score 26.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 21.5 16.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 215.1 / 219.0 202.0 / 360.0
Rushing Yards 111.7 / 121.8 93.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 326.8 / 340.8 295.0 / 454.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.6 5.2 / 7.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
GB
PIT
GB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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