Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Chargers MIN @ LAC

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

3-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Oct 23 • 8:15 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

4-3  |  Home

37
Key Game
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
@
Derius Davis
KEY GAME

Derius Davis

#12 | Wide Receiver
Player
Will Reichard None-None
Derius Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
VIKINGS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Los Angeles)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

21.6%

Chargers Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

MIN By 1-6 points

10.0%

MIN By 7-13 points

6.6%

LAC By 1-6 points

14.7%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19
MINNESOTA
30
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
MINNESOTA
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2025 MIN @ LAC 10 - 37
Sep 24, 2023 LAC @ MIN 28 - 24
Nov 14, 2021 MIN @ LAC 27 - 20
Dec 15, 2019 MIN @ LAC 39 - 10
Sep 27, 2015 LAC @ MIN 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.0% more
Los Angeles: 285.6 vs Minnesota: 250.6
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 391.4 vs Minnesota: 348.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Los Angeles: 105.8 vs Minnesota: 97.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 19.0 10
LAC Score 30.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 20.1 29.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 285.6 / 250.6 212.0 / 130.0
Rushing Yards 105.8 / 97.6 207.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.69 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 391.4 / 348.2 419.0 / 164.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.5 6.0 / 3.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
MIN
LAC
MIN
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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