DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
5-1-0 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-4-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | None-None | 4.22 | 0.871 | -- |
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 2.00 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.22
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.871
Save %
Ldr 0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
SABRES
0%
RED WINGS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
DET By 1 goal
6.6%
DET By 2-3 goals
3.7%
BUF By 1 goal
17.5%
BUF By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
DET @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
BUF @ DET
5 - 4
Oct 22, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 4
Sep 27, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 5
Sep 25, 2025
BUF @ DET
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.9% more
Buffalo: 30.5
vs
Detroit: 26.8
Power Play % (L5)
+13.9%
Buffalo: 26.2%
vs
Detroit: 12.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+10.3% more
Buffalo: 4.8
vs
Detroit: 4.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.3% more
Detroit: 16.3
vs
Buffalo: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.0
2
BUF Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.1 / 16.3
18.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
43.1 / 54.2
45.2 / 54.8
Hits
20.6 / 22.4
19.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
26.2 / 12.3
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.5 / 26.8
31.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 4.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DET
BUF
DET
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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Dylan Larkin Scores in Return to Red Wings Lineup Amid Trade Req…
Dylan Larkin Cleared to Return: Red Wings Star Set for Season De…
Alex Ovechkin Announces Final NHL Season: Capitals Legend Set fo…
Red Wings' Power Play Woes Sink Them Against Jets