UCLA
UCLAUCLA
3-4 | Road
6
INDIANA
INDIANAIU
7-0 | Home
56
Key Game
KEY GAME
Mateen Bhaghani
#15 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Nico Radicic
#15 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mateen Bhaghani | None-None |
| Nico Radicic | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
100%
INDIANA
0%
UCLA
--
INDIANA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
UCLA By 1-6 points
7.9%
UCLA By 7-13 points
4.7%
IU By 1-6 points
12.9%
IU By 7-13 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UCLA
6
UCLA
Indiana
20
INDIANA
Simulated Score
UCLA
20
UCLA
Indiana
31
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Indiana
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Indiana
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Indiana (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim
Indiana (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 26.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 25, 2025
UCLA @ IU
6 - 56
Sep 14, 2024
IU @ UCLA
42 - 13
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+20.5% more
Indiana: 24.3
vs
UCLA: 20.2
Total Yards (L5)
+11.8% more
Indiana: 440.3
vs
UCLA: 394.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+9.0% more
Indiana: 0.5
vs
UCLA: 0.4
Turnovers (L5)
+64.2% more
UCLA: 1.2
vs
Indiana: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score
6.0
6
IU Score
20.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.3 / 20.2
27.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards
164.6 / 192.9
262.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.75 / 0.09
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards
440.3 / 394.0
475.0 / 201.0
Turnovers
0.4 / 1.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
IU
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
IU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
UCLA
IU
UCLA
ML
100%
5-0
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
ATS
60%
3-2
33%
1-2-1
80%
4-1
0%
0-3-1
TTL
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
100%
5-0
25%
1-3
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