Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Oklahoma MISS @ OU

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

6-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

6-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Oscar Bird None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
100%
📊
OKLAHOMA
0%
OLE MISS --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Oklahoma)
Ole MissMISS (-3.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

0.6%

Oklahoma Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

MISS By 1-6 points

0.4%

MISS By 7-13 points

0.1%

OU By 1-6 points

1.4%

OU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
OLE MISS
42
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
28
OLE MISS
31
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Oklahoma (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 MISS @ OU 34 - 26
Oct 26, 2024 OU @ MISS 14 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Oklahoma: 1.1 vs Ole Miss: 0.8
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Oklahoma: 0.5 vs Ole Miss: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Ole Miss: 440.5 vs Oklahoma: 333.8
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Ole Miss: 23.9 vs Oklahoma: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 7.0 34
OU Score 42.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 23.9 14.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 132.8 / 154.9 136.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 333.8 / 440.5 359.0 / 431.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
OU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
MISS
OU
MISS
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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