Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ Memphis USF @ MEM

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

6-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

6-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
@
Brady Kluse
KEY GAME

Brady Kluse

#12 | Wide Receiver
Player
Nico Gramatica None-None
Brady Kluse None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
📊
MEMPHIS
100%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (South Florida)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

88.8%

Memphis Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USF -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-6 points

10.7%

USF By 7-13 points

17.5%

MEM By 1-6 points

5.9%

MEM By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
41
SOUTH FLORIDA
24
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
27
SOUTH FLORIDA
34
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Florida (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Memphis (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o59.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim o59.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 USF @ MEM 31 - 34
Oct 12, 2024 MEM @ USF 21 - 3
Nov 4, 2023 USF @ MEM 50 - 59
Nov 7, 2020 USF @ MEM 33 - 34
Nov 23, 2019 MEM @ USF 49 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.7% more
South Florida: 260.5 vs Memphis: 196.2
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
South Florida: 1.6 vs Memphis: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +17.6% more
South Florida: 521.1 vs Memphis: 429.2
First Downs (L5) +11.7% more
South Florida: 26.6 vs Memphis: 23.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 41.0 31
MEM Score 24.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 26.6 30.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 196.2 / 260.5 129.0 / 295.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 429.2 / 521.1 450.0 / 564.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
MEM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
USF
MEM
USF
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 40 minutes ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 12 hours, 53 minutes ago
Bo Nagahi Returns to Utah Football as Director of Alumni Relatio…
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Curt Cignetti Praises 'Extremely Impressive' Tape, Plans to 'Cag…
journalstar 2 days, 6 hours ago
AP Voters Split on Missouri-Florida After Tigers' Blowout Win
dailygazette 3 days, 12 hours ago