Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ Nebraska NU @ NEB

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

5-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

5-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Payton Roth
KEY GAME

Payton Roth

#34 | Linebacker
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Payton Roth None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
0%
📊
NEBRASKA
100%
NORTHWESTERN --
NEBRASKA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
20.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NorthwesternNU (-3.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

33.4%

Nebraska Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NEB +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

NU By 1-6 points

16.7%

NU By 7-13 points

19.0%

NEB By 1-6 points

13.5%

NEB By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13
NORTHWESTERN
7
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
24
NORTHWESTERN
27
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Northwestern Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nebraska Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nebraska (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim Nebraska (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 20.0
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 NU @ NEB 21 - 28
Oct 21, 2023 NU @ NEB 9 - 17
Aug 27, 2022 NEB @ NU 28 - 31
Oct 2, 2021 NU @ NEB 7 - 56
Nov 7, 2020 NEB @ NU 13 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.9% more
Northwestern: 190.7 vs Nebraska: 103.2
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Northwestern: 1.4 vs Nebraska: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Northwestern: 22.7 vs Nebraska: 19.2
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Northwestern: 0.6 vs Nebraska: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 13.0 21
NEB Score 7.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 22.7 18.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 103.2 / 190.7 155.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 344.7 / 359.6 296.0 / 331.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
NEB
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
NU
NEB
NU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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