Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Kent State BGSU @ KENT

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-4  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Pierce St Geme
KEY GAME

Pierce St Geme

#83 | Wide Receiver
@
Jaihien Roy
KEY GAME

Jaihien Roy

#33 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Pierce St Geme None-None
Jaihien Roy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
100%
📊
KENT STATE
0%
BOWLING GREEN --
KENT STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Kent State)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

17.7%

Kent State Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENT -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

BGSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

BGSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

KENT By 1-6 points

13.5%

KENT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14
BOWLING GREEN
27
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
17
BOWLING GREEN
24
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kent State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kent State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kent State (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Kent State (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 BGSU @ KENT 21 - 24
Oct 19, 2024 KENT @ BGSU 6 - 27
Nov 8, 2023 BGSU @ KENT 49 - 19
Nov 9, 2022 KENT @ BGSU 40 - 6
Oct 2, 2021 BGSU @ KENT 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.2% more
Bowling Green: 1.7 vs Kent State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Bowling Green: 136.2 vs Kent State: 82.1
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
Bowling Green: 15.1 vs Kent State: 11.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.3% more
Bowling Green: 303.8 vs Kent State: 248.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 14.0 21
KENT Score 27.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 11.9 / 15.1 14.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 82.1 / 136.2 122.0 / 207.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 248.3 / 303.8 294.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
KENT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
BGSU
KENT
BGSU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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