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SMU

SMUSMU

5-2  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

4-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
@
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
Player
Wade McSparron None-None
Connor Calvert None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
100%
📊
WAKE FOREST
0%
SMU --
WAKE FOREST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Wake Forest)
SMUSMU (-3.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

26.0%

Wake Forest Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WAKE -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

SMU By 1-6 points

11.5%

SMU By 7-13 points

8.0%

WAKE By 1-6 points

15.7%

WAKE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16
SMU
25
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
28
SMU
31
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wake Forest Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Wake Forest (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 SMU @ WAKE 12 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Wake Forest: 156.8 vs SMU: 123.0
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
SMU: 1.1 vs Wake Forest: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
SMU: 20.4 vs Wake Forest: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 16.0 12
WAKE Score 25.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 20.4 17.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 156.8 / 123.0 85.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 407.9 / 401.3 301.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
WAKE
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
SMU
WAKE
SMU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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