Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Old Dominion APP @ ODU

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

4-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Keshawn Thomas
KEY GAME

Keshawn Thomas

#13 | Linebacker
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Keshawn Thomas None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
0%
📊
OLD DOMINION
100%
APP STATE --
OLD DOMINION --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (App State)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 Old DominionODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

88.8%

Old Dominion Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around APP -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-6 points

10.7%

APP By 7-13 points

17.5%

ODU By 1-6 points

5.9%

ODU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
31
APP STATE
14
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
31
APP STATE
20
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI App State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI App State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim App State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 APP @ ODU 21 - 24
Nov 2, 2024 ODU @ APP 20 - 28
Oct 21, 2023 APP @ ODU 21 - 28
Nov 19, 2022 ODU @ APP 14 - 27
Sep 10, 2016 ODU @ APP 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
App State: 22.6 vs Old Dominion: 19.0
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
App State: 0.5 vs Old Dominion: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +137.4% more
Old Dominion: 2.9 vs App State: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.2% more
Old Dominion: 182.2 vs App State: 133.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 31.0 21
ODU Score 14.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 22.6 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 182.2 / 133.7 149.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 429.5 / 398.6 459.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
APP
ODU
APP
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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