Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Buffalo AKR @ BUFF

AKRON

AKRONAKR

2-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 1:00 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

4-3  |  Home

16
Key Game
Matthew Schramm
KEY GAME

Matthew Schramm

#47 | Place kicker
@
John Keough
KEY GAME

John Keough

#7 | Safety
Player
Matthew Schramm None-None
John Keough None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
100%
📊
BUFFALO
0%
AKRON --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Buffalo)
AkronAKR (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

0.1%

Buffalo Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

AKR By 1-6 points

0.1%

AKR By 7-13 points

0.0%

BUFF By 1-6 points

0.4%

BUFF By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
AKRON
52
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
20
AKRON
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffalo Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Buffalo Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffalo (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Buffalo (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 AKR @ BUFF 24 - 16
Nov 2, 2024 BUFF @ AKR 41 - 30
Sep 30, 2023 BUFF @ AKR 13 - 10
Dec 2, 2022 AKR @ BUFF 22 - 23
Oct 23, 2021 BUFF @ AKR 45 - 10
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.6% more
Buffalo: 22.6 vs Akron: 19.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Buffalo: 400.5 vs Akron: 352.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Buffalo: 130.7 vs Akron: 120.7
Turnovers (L5) +33.3% more
Akron: 1.3 vs Buffalo: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 10.0 24
BUFF Score 52.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 19.9 19.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 130.7 / 120.7 91.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.17 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 400.5 / 352.9 357.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BUFF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
AKR
BUFF
AKR
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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