Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ New Mexico USU @ UNM

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

4-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

4-3  |  Home

33
Key Game
Luke Durfey
KEY GAME

Luke Durfey

#6 | Linebacker
@
Drew Speech
KEY GAME

Drew Speech

#12 | Safety
Player
Luke Durfey None-None
Drew Speech None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
UTAH STATE --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Mexico)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

23.8%

New Mexico Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

USU By 1-6 points

10.7%

USU By 7-13 points

7.3%

UNM By 1-6 points

15.3%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
UTAH STATE
34
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
20
UTAH STATE
31
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim New Mexico (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 USU @ UNM 14 - 33
Oct 19, 2024 UNM @ USU 50 - 45
Nov 24, 2023 USU @ UNM 44 - 41
Nov 5, 2022 UNM @ USU 10 - 27
Nov 26, 2021 USU @ UNM 35 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +135.0% more
New Mexico: 2.3 vs Utah State: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs Utah State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +20.3% more
Utah State: 451.5 vs New Mexico: 359.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 24.0 14
UNM Score 34.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 20.7 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 153.8 / 165.8 224.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 359.7 / 451.5 407.0 / 306.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
USU
UNM
USU
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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