Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Rice CONN @ RICE

UCONN

UCONNCONN

5-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

3-4  |  Home

37
Key Game
Shamar Porter
KEY GAME

Shamar Porter

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Shamar Porter None-None
Enock Gota None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
0%
📊
RICE
100%
UCONN --
RICE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-56.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +56.0 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 RiceRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

100.0%

Rice Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -56.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

0.0%

CONN By 7-13 points

0.1%

RICE By 1-6 points

0.0%

RICE By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UCONN
10
RICE
Simulated Score
17
UCONN
28
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UConn Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rice Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UConn (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -56.0
C
Sim Rice (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 CONN @ RICE 34 - 37
Oct 26, 2024 RICE @ CONN 10 - 17
Oct 7, 2023 CONN @ RICE 38 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +31.3% more
UConn: 449.0 vs Rice: 308.4
First Downs (L5) +22.2% more
UConn: 20.5 vs Rice: 15.9
Turnovers (L5) +61.0% more
Rice: 0.9 vs UConn: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.6% more
Rice: 196.9 vs UConn: 147.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 66.0 34
RICE Score 10.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 20.5 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 196.9 / 147.3 300.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 308.4 / 449.0 491.0 / 449.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
RICE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
CONN
RICE
CONN
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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