Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ Miami OH WMU @ M-OH

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

4-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

4-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Lynel Billups-Williams
KEY GAME

Lynel Billups-Williams

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Lynel Billups-Williams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
0%
📊
MIAMI OH
100%
W MICHIGAN --
MIAMI OH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Western Michigan)
W MichiganWMU (-3.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

78.4%

Miami OH Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

WMU By 1-6 points

14.7%

WMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

M-OH By 1-6 points

10.0%

M-OH By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21
WESTERN MICHIGAN
10
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
20
WESTERN MICHIGAN
24
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI W Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami OH Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI W Michigan (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Miami OH (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 M-OH @ WMU 13 - 23
Oct 25, 2025 WMU @ M-OH 17 - 26
Oct 14, 2023 M-OH @ WMU 34 - 21
Oct 22, 2022 WMU @ M-OH 16 - 10
Oct 12, 2019 M-OH @ WMU 16 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.2% more
Western Michigan: 1.8 vs Miami (OH): 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Miami (OH): 209.9 vs Western Michigan: 189.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 21.0 17
M-OH Score 10.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 21.8 19.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 209.9 / 189.0 148.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 395.9 / 374.3 408.0 / 316.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
WMU
M-OH
WMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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