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UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-4  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

5-2  |  Home

49
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
0%
UL MONROE --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Southern Miss)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

6.7%

Southern Miss Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

ULM By 1-6 points

3.8%

ULM By 7-13 points

1.8%

USM By 1-6 points

7.9%

USM By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17
UL MONROE
38
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
17
UL MONROE
27
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Southern Miss (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 ULM @ USM 21 - 49
Oct 12, 2024 USM @ ULM 21 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 ULM @ USM 7 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 USM @ ULM 20 - 10
Sep 8, 2018 ULM @ USM 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
Southern Miss: 390.3 vs UL Monroe: 321.7
First Downs (L5) +16.9% more
Southern Miss: 20.5 vs UL Monroe: 17.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Southern Miss: 153.1 vs UL Monroe: 136.1
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
UL Monroe: 2.2 vs Southern Miss: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 17.0 21
USM Score 38.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 17.5 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 153.1 / 136.1 197.0 / 209.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 390.3 / 321.7 445.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.2 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM Advantage
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
USM Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ULM
USM
ULM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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