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BYU

BYUBYU

7-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

5-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Tausili Akana
KEY GAME

Tausili Akana

#13 | Defensive End
@
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Tausili Akana None-None
Kyle Konrardy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
100%
📊
IOWA STATE
0%
BYU --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Iowa State)
BYUBYU (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

1.6%

Iowa State Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

BYU By 1-6 points

1.0%

BYU By 7-13 points

0.4%

ISU By 1-6 points

2.9%

ISU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15
BYU
45
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
24
BYU
27
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Iowa State (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 BYU @ ISU 41 - 27
Nov 11, 2023 ISU @ BYU 45 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
BYU: 1.1 vs Iowa State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.1% more
BYU: 211.3 vs Iowa State: 177.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 15.0 41
ISU Score 45.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 23.0 24.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 177.2 / 211.3 184.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 425.9 / 414.3 495.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
BYU
ISU
BYU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 3-0
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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