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FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

3-4  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

6-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Earl Miller Jr.
KEY GAME

Earl Miller Jr.

#13 | Defensive Tackle
@
Isaiah Bryant
KEY GAME

Isaiah Bryant

#25 | Wide Receiver
Player
Earl Miller Jr. None-None
Isaiah Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
100%
📊
NAVY
0%
FAU --
NAVY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
80.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Navy)
FAUFAU (-3.5) 0 NavyNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

1.1%

Navy Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NAVY -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

FAU By 1-6 points

0.7%

FAU By 7-13 points

0.2%

NAVY By 1-6 points

2.2%

NAVY By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
56
NAVY
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
24
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Navy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Navy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Navy (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim Navy (-14) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o63.5 Win
Proj Total: 80.0
C
Sim u63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 NAVY @ FAU 30 - 38
Oct 25, 2025 FAU @ NAVY 32 - 42
Sep 1, 2017 NAVY @ FAU 42 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +170.3% more
Navy: 259.4 vs Florida Atlantic: 96.0
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Navy: 440.4 vs Florida Atlantic: 403.2
Turnovers (L5) +48.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 1.4 vs Navy: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +23.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 23.4 vs Navy: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 24.0 32
NAVY Score 56.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 23.4 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 259.4 / 96.0 397.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 440.4 / 403.2 503.0 / 450.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
FAU
NAVY
FAU
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
TTL
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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