Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ Fresno St SDSU @ FRES

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

5-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

5-2  |  Home

0
Key Game
Amari Comier
KEY GAME

Amari Comier

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jaden Carrillo
KEY GAME

Jaden Carrillo

#3 | Defensive Back
Player
Amari Comier None-None
Jaden Carrillo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
0%
📊
FRESNO ST
100%
SAN DIEGO ST --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (San Diego State)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

93.3%

Fresno St Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SDSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

SDSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

FRES By 1-6 points

3.8%

FRES By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SAN DIEGO STATE
17
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
24
SAN DIEGO STATE
28
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San Diego St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San Diego St (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Fresno St (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 SDSU @ FRES 23 - 0
Nov 25, 2023 FRES @ SDSU 18 - 33
Oct 29, 2022 SDSU @ FRES 28 - 32
Oct 30, 2021 FRES @ SDSU 30 - 20
Nov 15, 2019 FRES @ SDSU 7 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.1% more
San Diego State: 193.4 vs Fresno State: 141.0
Turnovers (L5) +181.0% more
Fresno State: 2.2 vs San Diego State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Fresno State: 21.9 vs San Diego State: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 38.0 23
FRES Score 17.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 19.9 14.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 141.0 / 193.4 45.0 / 208.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 395.5 / 392.5 227.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
SDSU
FRES
SDSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 9 hours, 43 minutes ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 21 hours ago
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 9 hours ago
Josh Heupel Stays Silent on Tennessee's Starting QB for Arkansas…
yahoo 3 days, 9 hours ago
Georgia Holds No. 2 AP Ranking as Showdown with Alabama Looms
yahoo 3 days, 15 hours ago