Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Washington St TOL @ WSU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

4-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

3-4  |  Home

28
Key Game
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
@
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Emilio Duran None-None
Jack Stevens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
100%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
0%
TOLEDO --
WASHINGTON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Washington State)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

26.0%

Washington St Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

TOL By 1-6 points

11.5%

TOL By 7-13 points

8.0%

WSU By 1-6 points

15.7%

WSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16
TOLEDO
25
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
24
TOLEDO
28
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington St (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Washington St (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 TOL @ WSU 7 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
Washington State: 1.4 vs Toledo: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.3% more
Toledo: 190.1 vs Washington State: 117.3
Total Yards (L5) +30.9% more
Toledo: 477.5 vs Washington State: 330.2
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
Toledo: 25.1 vs Washington State: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 16.0 7
WSU Score 25.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 25.1 20.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 117.3 / 190.1 162.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 330.2 / 477.5 321.0 / 299.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
TOL
WSU
TOL
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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