Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Vanderbilt MIZ @ VAN

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

6-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

6-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Darris Smith
KEY GAME

Darris Smith

#19 | EDGE
@
Bradley Mann
KEY GAME

Bradley Mann

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Darris Smith None-None
Bradley Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
0%
📊
VANDERBILT
100%
MISSOURI --
VANDERBILT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Missouri)
MissouriMIZ (-3.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

74.0%

Vanderbilt Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIZ -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MIZ By 1-6 points

15.7%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

VAN By 1-6 points

11.5%

VAN By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19
MISSOURI
10
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
34
MISSOURI
13
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Missouri (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 29.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 MIZ @ VAN 10 - 17
Sep 21, 2024 VAN @ MIZ 27 - 30
Sep 30, 2023 MIZ @ VAN 38 - 21
Oct 22, 2022 VAN @ MIZ 14 - 17
Oct 30, 2021 MIZ @ VAN 37 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.3% more
Missouri: 1.5 vs Vanderbilt: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Missouri: 24.5 vs Vanderbilt: 22.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Vanderbilt: 205.1 vs Missouri: 189.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 19.0 10
VAN Score 10.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 24.5 13.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 205.1 / 189.0 136.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 423.4 / 413.2 265.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
MIZ
VAN
MIZ
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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