Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Cincinnati BAY @ CIN

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

4-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 4:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

6-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Trent Thomas
KEY GAME

Trent Thomas

#92 | Defensive End
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Trent Thomas None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
100%
📊
CINCINNATI
0%
BAYLOR --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Cincinnati)
BaylorBAY (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

0.3%

Cincinnati Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BAY By 1-6 points

0.2%

BAY By 7-13 points

0.0%

CIN By 1-6 points

0.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
10
BAYLOR
49
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
BAYLOR
24
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u67.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u67.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 BAY @ CIN 20 - 41
Oct 21, 2023 BAY @ CIN 32 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.6% more
Cincinnati: 171.3 vs Baylor: 138.6
Turnovers (L5) +85.5% more
Baylor: 2.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +16.9% more
Baylor: 26.3 vs Cincinnati: 21.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Baylor: 471.1 vs Cincinnati: 429.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 10.0 20
CIN Score 49.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 26.3 26.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 171.3 / 138.6 265.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 429.4 / 471.1 376.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 2.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
CIN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAY
CIN
BAY
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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