Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Mississippi St TEX @ MSST

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

5-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 4:15 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Justus Terry
KEY GAME

Justus Terry

#15 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Justus Terry None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
0%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
TEXAS --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Texas)
TexasTEX (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

99.9%

Mississippi St Cover

0.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TEX -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-6 points

0.3%

TEX By 7-13 points

1.1%

MSST By 1-6 points

0.1%

MSST By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
51
TEXAS
7
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
17
TEXAS
38
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 TEX @ MSST 45 - 38
Sep 28, 2024 MSST @ TEX 13 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +104.0% more
Mississippi State: 1.6 vs Texas: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.8% more
Mississippi State: 158.1 vs Texas: 113.1
First Downs (L5) +34.2% more
Mississippi State: 20.1 vs Texas: 15.0
Total Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Mississippi State: 388.4 vs Texas: 313.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 51.0 45
MSST Score 7.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 15.0 25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 158.1 / 113.1 63.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.32 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 388.4 / 313.3 445.0 / 428.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
TEX
MSST
TEX
ML
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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