Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / TCU @ West Virginia TCU @ WVU

TCU

TCUTCU

5-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
@
Keyshawn Robinson
KEY GAME

Keyshawn Robinson

#20 | Cornerback
Player
Nate McCashland None-None
Keyshawn Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
0%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
100%
TCU --
WEST VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

15.9%

West Virginia Cover

84.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WVU +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

TCU By 1-6 points

12.9%

TCU By 7-13 points

19.0%

WVU By 1-6 points

7.9%

WVU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
TCU
17
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
24
TCU
27
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI TCU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim West Virginia Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI West Virginia (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
C
Sim West Virginia (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 TCU @ WVU 23 - 17
Sep 30, 2023 WVU @ TCU 24 - 21
Oct 29, 2022 TCU @ WVU 41 - 31
Oct 23, 2021 WVU @ TCU 29 - 17
Nov 14, 2020 TCU @ WVU 6 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +27.9% more
TCU: 417.6 vs West Virginia: 301.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
TCU: 0.5 vs West Virginia: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +10.0% more
TCU: 20.8 vs West Virginia: 18.7
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
TCU: 1.5 vs West Virginia: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 31.0 23
WVU Score 17.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 20.8 19.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 172.2 / 125.8 41.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.21 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 301.2 / 417.6 342.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
WVU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
WVU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
TCU
WVU
TCU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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