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MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

5-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Aisea Moa
KEY GAME

Aisea Moa

#13 | Linebacker
@
Derrick Simmons
KEY GAME

Derrick Simmons

#98 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Aisea Moa None-None
Derrick Simmons None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
0%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
100%
MICHIGAN --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Michigan)
MichiganMICH (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan Cover

88.8%

Michigan St Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MICH -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-6 points

10.7%

MICH By 7-13 points

17.5%

MSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

MSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
20
MICHIGAN
3
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
17
MICHIGAN
31
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Michigan St (-14) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 23.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 MICH @ MSU 31 - 20
Oct 26, 2024 MSU @ MICH 17 - 24
Oct 21, 2023 MICH @ MSU 49 - 0
Oct 29, 2022 MSU @ MICH 7 - 29
Oct 30, 2021 MICH @ MSU 33 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.1% more
Michigan: 186.3 vs Michigan State: 96.7
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
Michigan: 394.9 vs Michigan State: 320.1
First Downs (L5) +10.9% more
Michigan: 20.2 vs Michigan State: 18.0
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Michigan State: 0.9 vs Michigan: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 20.0 31
MSU Score 3.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 20.2 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 96.7 / 186.3 115.0 / 276.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 320.1 / 394.9 305.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
MICH
MSU
MICH
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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