Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ Kentucky TENN @ UK

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

5-2  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:45 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
100%
📊
KENTUCKY
0%
TENNESSEE --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Kentucky)
TennesseeTENN (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

15.9%

Kentucky Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

TENN By 1-6 points

7.9%

TENN By 7-13 points

4.7%

UK By 1-6 points

12.9%

UK By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
TENNESSEE
38
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
27
TENNESSEE
31
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kentucky Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kentucky (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Kentucky (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 TENN @ UK 56 - 34
Nov 2, 2024 UK @ TENN 18 - 28
Oct 28, 2023 TENN @ UK 33 - 27
Oct 29, 2022 UK @ TENN 6 - 44
Nov 6, 2021 TENN @ UK 45 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.7% more
Kentucky: 1.7 vs Tennessee: 1.2
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Kentucky: 0.5 vs Tennessee: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.9% more
Tennessee: 187.4 vs Kentucky: 129.5
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Tennessee: 465.2 vs Kentucky: 341.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 24.0 56
UK Score 38.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 25.5 25.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 129.5 / 187.4 146.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 341.6 / 465.2 476.0 / 504.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
UK
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TENN
UK
TENN
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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