Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ Arizona St HOU @ ASU

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

6-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

5-2  |  Home

16
Key Game
Myles Rowser
KEY GAME

Myles Rowser

#21 | Defensive Back
@
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
Player
Myles Rowser None-None
Kanyon Floyd None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
0%
📊
ARIZONA ST
100%
HOUSTON --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HoustonHOU (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

33.4%

Arizona St Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ASU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.0%

ASU By 1-6 points

13.5%

ASU By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
31
HOUSTON
25
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Houston Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim Arizona St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 HOU @ ASU 24 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Houston: 0.7 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Houston: 172.8 vs Arizona State: 152.0
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona State: 0.6 vs Houston: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
Arizona State: 22.8 vs Houston: 21.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 31.0 24
ASU Score 25.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.0 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 152.0 / 172.8 98.0 / 183.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 390.1 / 385.4 426.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
HOU
ASU
HOU
ML
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
TTL
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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