Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Nevada BOIS @ NEV

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

5-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 10:00 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-6  |  Home

3
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
0%
📊
NEVADA
100%
BOISE ST --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Boise State)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

99.7%

Nevada Cover

0.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BOIS -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-6 points

0.7%

BOIS By 7-13 points

2.4%

NEV By 1-6 points

0.2%

NEV By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
BOISE STATE
3
NEVADA
Simulated Score
17
BOISE STATE
31
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Boise St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Nevada Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Boise St (+21) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
B
Sim Nevada (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2025 BOIS @ NEV 24 - 3
Nov 9, 2024 NEV @ BOIS 21 - 28
Nov 12, 2022 BOIS @ NEV 41 - 3
Oct 2, 2021 NEV @ BOIS 41 - 31
Oct 13, 2018 BOIS @ NEV 31 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.4% more
Boise State: 211.0 vs Nevada: 104.7
Total Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Boise State: 469.9 vs Nevada: 284.8
First Downs (L5) +29.0% more
Boise State: 23.1 vs Nevada: 16.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Boise State: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 42.0 24
NEV Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 23.1 15.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 104.7 / 211.0 101.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 284.8 / 469.9 249.0 / 309.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.5 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
BOIS
NEV
BOIS
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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