BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-3-0 | Road
2
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
4-2-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.11 | 0.903 | -- |
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 2.00 | 0.938 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.11
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.903
Save %
Ldr 0.938
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
CANADIENS
0%
SABRES
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 18, 2026
MTL @ BUF
3 - 2
May 16, 2026
BUF @ MTL
8 - 3
May 14, 2026
MTL @ BUF
6 - 3
May 12, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 2
May 10, 2026
BUF @ MTL
2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.9%
Montreal: 50.7%
vs
Buffalo: 42.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+16.7%
Buffalo: 39.3%
vs
Montreal: 22.7%
Hits (L5)
+16.4% more
Buffalo: 23.4
vs
Montreal: 19.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.3% more
Buffalo: 16.7
vs
Montreal: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
MTL Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 16.7
21.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
50.7 / 42.8
56.4 / 43.6
Hits
19.6 / 23.4
22.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
2269.0 / 3934.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 29.8
31.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 4.2
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
BUF
MTL
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…