MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-0 | Road
121
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
0-0 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
MAGIC
0%
HEAT
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
MIA By 1-7 points
2.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
0.4%
ORL By 1-7 points
9.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Orlando
124
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o216.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u216.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.9% more
Orlando: 6.6
vs
Miami: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+15.8% more
Orlando: 26.0
vs
Miami: 22.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Orlando: 35.9%
vs
Miami: 26.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Orlando: 47.3%
vs
Miami: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
105.0
121
ORL Score
124.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 26.6
40.0 / 34.3
Assists
26.0 / 22.5
23.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.6 / 4.7
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 40.8
46.7 / 48.4
Free Throw %
80.2 / 76.0
82.9 / 77.8
Rebounding
47.9 / 51.7
46.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.5
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 18.7
15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MIA
ORL
MIA
ML
61%
65-42
48%
46-50
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
ATS
64%
68-38-1
51%
49-47
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
61-46
59%
57-39
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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