TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
0-0 | Road
138
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-0 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
HAWKS
100%
RAPTORS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
258.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-7 points
20.1%
TOR By 8-14 points
27.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
8.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
135
TORONTO
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Raptors (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o237.0
Win
Proj Total: 258.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.0% more
Toronto: 10.6
vs
Atlanta: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Toronto: 34.0%
vs
Atlanta: 28.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Toronto: 82.0%
vs
Atlanta: 77.4%
Blocks (L5)
+67.6% more
Atlanta: 7.0
vs
Toronto: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
135.0
138
ATL Score
123.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 34.0
28.6 / 24.0
Assists
27.0 / 28.2
25.0 / 36.0
Blocks
7.0 / 4.2
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 40.8
42.2 / 56.8
Free Throw %
77.4 / 82.0
86.5 / 82.8
Rebounding
49.8 / 49.1
34.0 / 54.0
Steals
8.5 / 10.6
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 15.1
16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
50%
52-52
55%
57-47
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
61%
62-40-2
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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